Nigeria Bans Coal Exports as Global Demand Set to Fall from 2026
Nigeria has officially banned the export of coal as global demand is expected to decline from 2026, amid rising competition from renewable energy, natural gas, and nuclear power, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The decision follows the IEA’s Coal 2025 market report, which forecasts a gradual fall in global coal consumption through the end of the decade, driven mainly by structural changes in the power sector.
While coal demand is projected to rise slightly by 0.5 per cent in 2025, reaching a record 8.85 billion tonnes, it is expected to return to 2023 levels by 2030 as coal-fired power generation declines from 2026 onward.
Power generation currently accounts for around two-thirds of global coal use, but growing renewable energy capacity, steady nuclear development, and a surge in liquefied natural gas supply are steadily reducing coal’s share. Industrial coal demand is expected to remain more stable, offering some support to overall consumption.
Nigeria’s Minister of Environment, Alhaji Balarabe Abbas-Lawal, confirmed that the Federal Government has prohibited the export of coal, wood, charcoal, and related products. The directive is contained in the Presidential Executive Order on Prohibition of Exportation of Wood and Allied Products, 2025, signed by President Bola Tinubu, and takes immediate effect nationwide.
The IEA report, released on December 17, 2025, highlighted varying trends in coal consumption across major markets. In India, an early and intense monsoon caused a rare annual decline in coal use, only the third drop in five decades. In the United States, higher natural gas prices and delayed coal plant retirements temporarily increased demand, interrupting a 15-year downward trend. Coal use in the European Union fell modestly after two years of sharp declines, while China’s consumption remained largely flat compared to 2024.
Southeast Asia is projected to be the fastest-growing coal market, with demand rising by over 4 per cent annually through 2030. However, uncertainties remain around electricity demand growth, renewable energy adoption, and policy decisions globally.
China, a major player in global coal trade, reduced imports in 2025 due to oversupply and weaker domestic demand—a trend expected to continue through 2030, contributing to a broader global contraction in coal trade. Metallurgical coal prospects remain stronger, supported by India’s expanding steel industry and continued reliance on imports.
Overall, the IEA predicts declining coal production in most major producing countries, including China and Indonesia, as demand softens. India is expected to increase production to reduce import dependence.
Nigeria’s coal export ban aligns with global efforts to transition away from coal and signals a focus on environmental protection and domestic resource conservation, even as the international coal market faces uncertainty beyond 2026.
